Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Background Research For Global Warming- Melting of Ice-Caps

ISSUES: GLOBAL WARMING

LITTLE TIME TO AVOID BIG THAW, SCIENTISTS WARN
Arctic temperatures near a prehistoric level when seas were 16 to 20 feet higher, studies say.

By Peter N. Spotts Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

Global warming appears to be pushing vast reservoirs of ice on Greenland and Antarctica toward a significant, long-term meltdown. The world may have as little as a decade to take the steps to avoid this scenario.
Those are the implications of new studies that looked to climate history for clues about how the planet's major ice sheets might respond to human-triggered climate change.
Already, temperatures in the Arctic are close to those that thawed much of Greenland's ice cap some 130,000 years ago, when the planet last enjoyed a balmy respite from continent-covering glaciers, say the studies' authors.
By 2100, spring and summer temperatures in the Arctic could reach levels that trigger an unstoppable repeat performance, they say. Over several centuries, the melt could raise sea levels by as much as 20 feet, submerging major cities worldwide as well as chains of islands, such as the present-day Bahamas.
The US would lose the lower quarter of Florida, southern Louisiana up to Baton Rouge, and North Carolina's Outer Banks. The ocean would even flood a significant patch of California's Central Valley, lapping at the front porches of Sacramento.
These estimates may understate the potential rise. The teams say their studies provide the first hints that during the last interglacial period, ice sheets in both hemispheres worked together to raise sea levels, rather than the Northern Hemisphere's ice alone. This raises concerns that Antarctic melting might be more severe this time, because additional melt mechanisms may be at work.
"It sounds bad," acknowledges Jonathan Overpeck, a University of Arizona researcher who led one of the two studies. He notes that rising temperatures are approaching a threshold. But "we know about it far enough in advance to avoid crossing it." The challenge, he and others say, is to take advantage of the remaining window by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases substantially.
The two studies were published in Friday's issue of the journal Science.
Ice on Greenland and Antarctica is already thinning faster than it's being replaced - and faster than scientists thought it would, notes Richard Alley, a paleoclimatologist at Penn State University and member of one of the research teams. Only five years ago, he notes, climate scientists expected the ice sheets to gain mass through 2100, then begin to melt. "We're now 100 years ahead of schedule," he says.
The new results aren't the end of the story. The researchers will refine the models, improve the measurements, and find other sources of data to verify the modeling. Coral data pointing to sea-level changes in the last warm period remain controversial, the team acknowledges. And the team's assumption that the amount of carbon dioxide would triple by 2100, although moderate among climate forecasts, is not a done deal. It depends on how quickly industrial and developing countries adopt low-emission technologies and take long-term steps to reduce greenhouse gases.
But the window for action is relatively short, Dr. Overpeck says. CO2 remains in the atmosphere for more than a century after it's first emitted. And it takes time to implement policies and adopt technologies. Thus for all practical purposes, the tipping point may come sooner than atmospheric chemistry would suggest.
The studies required some in-depth sleuthing. Researchers realized that changes in Earth's tilt and orbit intensified the sunlight reaching the Arctic during interglacial periods, notes Bette Otto- Bliesner, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. But when it came to the effect on the Arctic's ice, "no one knew how big the response would be."
So she and her colleagues first tested the center's newest climate model against temperature information gleaned from pollen, insects, ocean plankton, and other remnants of the period. The results matched closely.
Confident that they could reproduce the period's climate by computer, they linked the results to a second model with a reputation for accurately simulating ice sheets. Using ice-core samples and other evidence as a reality check, they concluded that within 1,000 to 2,000 years of the warming's onset, Greenland's ice sheet dwindled to a steep lump covering the island's central and northern parts. The melt water raised sea levels by seven to 11 feet.
But coral records from geologically stable parts of the ocean suggested that sea levels during that time rose 16 to 20 feet - a level that held for roughly 11,000 years. Overpeck, who had been working with Dr. Otto-Bliesner on the initial modeling exercise, says several lines of evidence led him to suspect that the balance came from Antarctica.
From there, the team used the climate model to estimate the warming that could occur by 2130 if CO2 emissions rose by 1 percent per year. In the pantheon of emissions scenarios, this represents a moderate one, he holds. But it's enough to triple CO2 concentrations by 2100, leading to summers that are 5 to 8 degrees F. warmer than today - levels that appear to have melted the ice 129,000 years ago.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0324/p01s03-sten.html



Global Warming Puts the Arctic on Thin Ice

1. Why are global warming specialists watching the Arctic so closely?

The Arctic is global warming's canary in the coal mine. It's a highly sensitive region, and it's being profoundly affected by the changing climate. Most scientists view what's happening now in the Arctic as a harbinger of things to come.
Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent. (Illustration from NASA)

2. What kinds of changes are taking place in the Arctic now?

Average temperatures in the Arctic region are rising twice as fast as they are elsewhere in the world. Arctic ice is getting thinner, melting and rupturing. For example, the largest single block of ice in the Arctic, the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf, had been around for 3,000 years before it started cracking in 2000. Within two years it had split all the way through and is now breaking into pieces.
The polar ice cap as a whole is shrinking. Images from NASA satellites show that the area of permanent ice cover is contracting at a rate of 9 percent each decade. If this trend continues, summers in the Arctic could become ice-free by the end of the century.

3. How does this dramatic ice melt affect the Arctic?

The melting of once-permanent ice is already affecting native people, wildlife and plants. When the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf splintered, the rare freshwater lake it enclosed, along with its unique ecosystem, drained into the ocean. Polar bears, whales, walrus and seals are changing their feeding and migration patterns, making it harder for native people to hunt them. And along Arctic coastlines, entire villages will be uprooted because they're in danger of being swamped. The native people of the Arctic view global warming as a threat to their cultural identity and their very survival.

4. Will Arctic ice melt have any effects beyond the polar region?

Yes -- the contraction of the Arctic ice cap is accelerating global warming. Snow and ice usually form a protective, cooling layer over the Arctic. When that covering melts, the earth absorbs more sunlight and gets hotter. And the latest scientific data confirm the far-reaching effects of climbing global temperatures.
Rising temperatures are already affecting Alaska, where the spruce bark beetle is breeding faster in the warmer weather. These pests now sneak in an extra generation each year. From 1993 to 2003, they chewed up 3.4 million acres of Alaskan forest.
Melting glaciers and land-based ice sheets also contribute to rising sea levels, threatening low-lying areas around the globe with beach erosion, coastal flooding, and contamination of freshwater supplies. (Sea level is not affected when floating sea ice melts.) At particular risk are island nations like the Maldives; over half of that nation's populated islands lie less than 6 feet above sea level. Even major cities like Shanghai and Lagos would face similar problems, as they also lie just six feet above present water levels.
Rising seas would severely impact the United States as well. Scientists project as much as a 3-foot sea-level rise by 2100. According to a 2001 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency study, this increase would inundate some 22,400 square miles of land along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States, primarily in Louisiana, Texas, Florida and North Carolina.
A warmer Arctic will also affect weather patterns and thus food production around the world. Wheat farming in Kansas, for example, would be profoundly affected by the loss of ice cover in the Arctic. According to a NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies computer model, Kansas would be 4 degrees warmer in the winter without Arctic ice, which normally creates cold air masses that frequently slide southward into the United States. Warmer winters are bad news for wheat farmers, who need freezing temperatures to grow winter wheat. And in summer, warmer days would rob Kansas soil of 10 percent of its moisture, drying out valuable cropland.

5. Can we do anything to stop global warming?

Yes. When we burn fossil fuels -- oil, coal and gas -- to generate electricity and power our vehicles, we produce the heat-trapping gases that cause global warming. The more we burn, the faster churns the engine of global climate change. Thus the most important thing we can do is save energy.
And we can do it. Technologies exist today to make cars that run cleaner and burn less gas, generate electricity from wind and sun, modernize power plants, and build refrigerators, air conditioners and whole buildings that use less power. As individuals, each of us can take steps to save energy and fight global warming.

Resource from:http://www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/qthinice.asp

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

All Reference for Assignment 3- Global Warming Poster

Perhaps the background colour of this picture is suitable for my poster. This picture also gaves me an ideation before I create the poster.



I can use the shape of this Ice mountain and observe the way to colour Ice-caps through this picture.




The structure and shape of the Ice-caps in this picture is suitable for my poster. I should refer this picture when I plan to colour my poster.





This is also one of the good example of Ice-cap that I should use as a reference for my poster.



I plan to draw the Ice-ground of this picture inside my poster.





May be I can draw the Ice- Caps is melting on my poster (base on this this picture).




Base on this picture, I can study the shape of the Ice-Caps and figure out how to colour the Ice-Caps on my poster.






I like this reference. The structure of the Ice-caps is so nice and I plan to use the shape of the Ice-Caps on my poster. But, I will modify it, so that the shape of Ice-caps is suitable for what I plan to draw on my poster.



Examples of Poster

May be the text pattern on this poster is suitable for my final poster. Besides that, the layout of this poster is quite suitable for my poster.

I like this type of text style.May be should use this text style for my poster.


Resource from Google Image-http://images.google.com.my/images?hl=en&q=Ice&gbv=2

Monday, August 18, 2008

The Explanation For My Illustration

Title - The Ice Caps Must Remain in the Arctic- The Big Thaw Must Not Happen

It is not a surprise that the Global Warming is melting the world’s glaciers and Ice-caps. But no one expected it to happen this fast.
Since early 1960s, mountain glaciers around the world have experienced an estimated net loss of over 4, ooo cubic kilometres of water; this loss was more than twice as fast during the 1990s as in the previous decades. According to experts, 4 degree Celsius rise in average global temperatures would cause nearly all of the world’s glaciers to melt.
Ice is part of the biology of every creature that lives in this frozen vastness. So, human beings should think twice of what they have done because they are the ones who attribute to Global Warming. This will not only save all the creatures that live in Arctic but also save the World’s, our mother nature.
I was given a task to complete the assignment by doing the illustration of the area I chose from the theme- Global Warming. Based on the illustration, I was trying to say that there is still hope for us or human being to save the Ice-Caps from melting and help “them” to continue to remain in this world. Look at the illustration; I had been illustrating the view of some remaining Ice-Caps in the Arctic. Although the Ice-caps are already undergoing the melting process, but yet there are still Ice-Caps. The difference is just the size of the Ice-Caps is smaller compared to before. Therefore, there are still some Ice Caps remaining in the Arctic and I believe some Ice- Caps have not been affected by Global Warming, why don’t we try to protect them? The remaining of the Ice- Caps illustrated in the illustration give the impression that there is still hope and chance for human beings to be aware of the effects brought about by Global Warming. Even the remaining Ice-Caps also metaphor that they still have a strong will to remain; they still want to play an important role in maintaining the temperature of the Planet Earth.
On the illustration, I decided to put my symbol of Awareness from the previous assignment. The Symbol with title” Save the Ice- Caps, Means Save the World” is creating a strong awareness for all the people who see it. The Ice-Cap metaphor is suffering because it is melting. And, all this happened because of Global Warming.
In conclusion, I wished to emphasize the meaning of my illustration by saying that we must stop the melting of Ice-Caps and must not let this big thaw to happen starting from now. This will ensure the Ice-Caps will continue to remain in this World together with all its co-existing creatures and wildlife.

Saturday, August 16, 2008

The True Final Illustration For " Melting Of Ice-Caps"

Here I wish to say thank you to Miss Koo for giving me good comments and some wise suggestion. Hence, I had made correction for my illustration. I had put my Symbol of awareness at the right side now. Ya, now the illustration looks nicer. Besides that, I had taken out some pieces of Ice-Caps and made the rest of the pieces less contrasting in colour. I hope that the new overall view of illustration looks better than the previous one and have been improved.


Friday, August 15, 2008

Finally I Started To Draw My Illustration for "Melting Of Ice Caps"

Step 1- Place The Template

First, I am going to place the reference picture of Ice Cap and my complete sketches as my Template. The Template is very useful because I can easily use it to trace the outline of the Ice-Caps.

*Select File> Place> Choose the picture> select Template>>>Then, PLACE.






Step 2- Start Trace the Outline of Ice-Caps Using Pen tool

I used Pen tool to trace some of the structure of Ice Caps.





Step 3- Colour the Ice-Caps With the Help of Mesh Tool


To make the Ice-Caps looks more realistic, naturalistic and well textured, I chose to use Mesh Tool. Mesh Tool allowed me to add point with line inside my Ice-Cap outline. The line added will make the Ice-Caps looks like 3D.


Firstly, I selected the Mesh Tool icon. Then, I chose one of my Ice-Caps and selected the suitable place to put mesh point. Examples below showed before and after I added the mesh point using Mesh Tool.



Examples of The Ice Caps


Ice-Cap 1

Before

After



Ice-Cap 2
Before

After

Ice Cap 3
Before After

Ice- Cap 4
Before After



Ice- Cap 5
Before

After



Ice- Cap 6
Before
After

Diagram Below showed that all the Ice-Caps had been modified by me using Mesh Tool. It is quite interesting to use this tool as it will make your illustration looks very realistic and "cool" looking. At first this tool is quite hard to use as it was still new and unfamiliar for me. But after I kept on using it and try my best to learn it, suddenly I feel like I managed to use it wisely and accurately.

This Mesh Tool allowed us to adjust it mesh point by using Direct Selection Tool. So,whenever we are not satisfied with the location that we put the mesh point, we can just click any mesh point you like and adjust it to be higher or lower; and even adjust it to become more curve or round. Besides that, after you put the mesh point, you can just simply delete it, just hold the alt Key and click the mesh point u want to take out.



*Notice that the green words written " My Swatches". I had been creating my own personal colour swatches before I started to place colour on my Ice-Caps.This is because I knew that doing this will make it more convenient for me to choose the colour I would like to place on my Ice Caps. Besides that, using own self created swatches is much better as it will not confuse you on what colour you want to choose or you had chosen.



Step 4- Complete View of Ice-Caps

This is the personal swatches I used to colour my Illustration. Basically to make realistic colour tone and shading on my Ice-Caps, I chose to use ocean light blue, light grey-purple, light grey and mostly white or light-blue white.

Diagram on top shows the final view of my Ice-Caps. As I kept on adjusting and observing the suitable location to place mesh point and kept on observing and studying the shape and colour of the Ice-Cap, finally I managed to make a great improvement on my Ice-Caps.By using this Mesh Tool, we can easily match the colour of the Ice-Caps making them more beautiful and more structured.Finally, I had done and completed the illustration of Ice-Caps.

Step 5- Making Up The Background

Every illustration must have a background to enhance its beauty. A background also make the illustration looks more complete and perfect. Basically, in this assignment, I am just going to illustrate a simple background.

Both diagram below showed before and after on how I make improvement of my background.

I had divided the background into 3 part- The Blue Sky, The Sea and The Stone( ground).

*Using Rectangle Tool, I draw the Blue Sky and the Sea.
*Using Pen Tool, I draw the Stone (ground).


Before-

Firstly, I drew the rectangle by using Rectangle Tool.This is for the Blue Sky and the Sea. Then, I use Pen Tool to draw the Stone (ground).

After-

Then, using gradient to match the colour of my background.

This is the final view of my background.Now I can put my illustration of Ice-Cap into this background.

Step 6- Add Additional Small Ice- Caps

After I had done my background, I decided to put some small Ice-Caps as to make my background similar to the situation of the Artic. I chose to use Paintbrush Tool because I found that by using Watercolour Wet (one of the brush found in Paintbrush Tool ),I can illustrate simple small Ice-Caps easily and faster. The effects of Watercolour Wet looks similar to small Ice-Caps shape. This can be shown when you chose light blue colour for stroke and draw a short straight line using Watercolour wet.




Step 7- Finishing View

Without Symbol-
With Symbol-
This is the complete view of my illustration for Assignment 2. I will post my explanation about the melting of Ice-Caps and about this illustration on the next blog.

Thank You..

My Sketches For Assignment 2

The purpose of this assignment is to illustrate the overall picture of area of my choice. Since i chose "Melting Of Ice-Caps" as my title for the theme-Global Warming, I am going to illustrate the Ice Caps. But before that, I decided to make some sketches first. These sketches can be considered as part of my important ideation and greatly assist me when I do illustration using Adobe Illustrator.